Six additional countries signed a pledge to triple global nuclear generation capacity by 2050 at the UN's Climate Change Conference, COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan. The Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy was originally signed Dec. 2 at COP28 in Dubai by 22 countries. The six new signatories are El Salvador, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Nigeria, and Turkey, the World Nuclear Association said...
The Biden administration has announced a plan to deploy 15 GW of new nuclear power per year by 2040, with the ultimate goal of tripling the current fleet by 2050. The White House plan released Nov. 12 calls for 35 GW of new nuclear capacity to be operating or under construction by 2035, with 200 GW deployed by 2050. The...
Hawaiian Electric credit risks tied to wildfires and the costs associated with them resulted in Clearway Energy canceling power purchase agreements that the renewable power project developer had with the utility, Leo Asuncion, chairman of the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission, said Nov. 10. If more clean energy project developers follow that path, Hawaii risks missing renewable portfolio standard targets, Asuncion...
Trump's election as US President "is set to have far-reaching, significant effects on global gas markets," Axpo Singapore Managing Director Sophie Ducoloner told S&P Global Commodity Insights in an interview. "Trump is expected to fast-track new LNG projects. On the other hand, had the Democrats won, they may not have necessarily rejected these projects but could have implemented more regulatory...
The Thailand International Renewable Energy Certificate (I-REC) market continues to grapple with significant oversupply, despite recording its highest issuance figure in October 2024. The market saw an issuance of 1.48 TWh from January to October 2024, marking a 2.3% increase from the previous month. However, redemption rates remained low, reaching only 0.4 TWh, a modest 9.99% increase from the prior...
Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is set to unveil a set of proposed LNG policy steps Nov. 8, including a first-of-its-kind measure to help build new LNG storage tanks for the country's energy security, a METI source told S&P Global Commodity Insights Nov. 7. The proposed actions will be released at a METI subcommittee on energy resources development...
The Vietnamese government has proposed revisions to its Electricity Law to enhance its energy landscape by boosting the renewable energy sector and paving the way for nuclear power development. These legislative changes aim to attract foreign investment in the renewable energy sector by promoting policy and institutional advancements -- essential for integrating new energy sources into the grid -- advancing...
California voters overwhelmingly passed a ballot measure allowing the state to borrow $10 billion to fund environmental and energy initiatives aimed at addressing climate change impacts. The Associated Press called the race at 10:07 a.m. Pacific Time on Nov. 6, at which time Proposition 4 was leading by 15.9 percentage points with 52.88% of the vote cast. Prop. 4 authorizes...
Strong power demand and an unusually hot summer have driven Japan's coal imports to a 20-month high, as the country turns to additional suppliers to meet energy needs. In September, Japan imported 15.90 million mt of coal, marking a 17.35% year-on-year increase, according to the latest trade statistics data from the Ministry of Finance. This surge in coal consumption defies...
Republican candidate Kelly Ayotte will likely be the next governor of New Hampshire after winning a tightly contested race against Democrat Joyce Craig, according to preliminary election results. Ayotte led Craig by 7.5 percentage points with 62% of votes counted when the Associated Press called the race at around 10:35 pm ET on Nov. 5. Ayotte, a former New Hampshire...
Anticipation of potential increases in 2025 spot LNG prices is shaping buyers' purchasing strategies, as the global LNG market braces for tight conditions amid concerns over supply vulnerabilities and increasing demand. Spot LNG prices in 2025 remain vulnerable to supply-side shocks and unforeseen events as the global LNG balance is expected to remain tight from delays in LNG liquefaction capacity,...
Northwest European LNG prices flipped to premium territory versus Northeast Asian benchmarks for the first time this year as European worries over supply shortages bolster sentiment. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the JKM -- the benchmark price reflecting LNG delivered to Northeast Asia -- for December at $13.821/MMBtu on Nov. 14, up 31.4 cents/MMBtu or 2.3% day...
Republicans gained full control of the US Congress, adding tailwinds for the incoming Trump administration's deregulatory agenda. The election results also increase risks to clean energy spending through the Inflation Reduction Act and bipartisan infrastructure legislation. The Associated Press projected late Nov. 13 that Republicans have won 218 of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives, with nine...
Germany's economy ministry has instructed state-owned LNG terminal operator Deutsche Energy Terminal (DET) to reject any cargoes of Russian LNG that may attempt delivery, the Financial Times reported Nov. 14. The FT cited a letter dated Nov. 6 sent by the ministry to DET that told the terminal operator "not to accept any deliveries of Russian LNG." It came after...
Chinese state-owned Sinopec's heads of agreement with TotalEnergies for the supply of LNG is likely being discussed at a price of around 12% crude oil slope or lower amid current market conditions, sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights. The HOA signed on Nov. 4 allows France's TotalEnergies to supply 2 million mt/year of LNG to Sinopec for 15 years, starting...
Biden administration officials have asked the European Commission to ensure imports of LNG that meet US regulations on methane emissions will satisfy new European standards for imported fuels, according to a letter obtained by S&P Global Commodity Insights. The letter was dated Oct. 28 -- a week before president-elect Donald Trump won a second term, having promised a deregulatory agenda...
Premiums for calendar year 2025 gas and LNG contracts versus 2026 contracts and beyond have shot up in the week since the US presidential election, with Donald Trump's victory seemingly injecting more volatility into a market already weighing stronger near-term demand signals, supply security concerns and delays to new liquefaction capacity, against expectations of a "looser balance" in 2026 when...
A series of initiatives to reduce methane emissions were unveiled on Nov. 12 at the UN Climate Change Conference, with several countries, industry bodies and financial institutions involved. The US, China and Azerbaijan convened a summit on the sidelines of COP29 focusing on cutting emissions of methane and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases. In a statement, the US Department of State...
BlueNord plans to focus on maximizing economic recovery from its resource base offshore Denmark and to maintain production levels through the development of existing assets, CEO Euan Shirlaw said in an interview. BlueNord -- formerly known as Noreco (Norwegian Energy Company) -- holds a 36.8% stake in the Danish Underground Consortium alongside TotalEnergies (43.2%) and Nordsofonden (20%). The DUC's main...
The supply of Russian LNG into Europe continues at a steady rate, with a number of EU countries still taking cargoes in the absence of EU-wide sanctions against imports. But EU sanctions banning the transshipment of Russian LNG at EU ports for delivery to non-EU countries will come into effect at the end of March 2025, while a ban on...
In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook, we now forecast U.S. retail gasoline prices through the end of 2026. We estimate U.S. average gasoline prices in 2025 will decrease by 11 cents per gallon (gal), or about 3%, compared with 2024. In 2026, we forecast a further decrease of about 18 cents/gal, or an additional 6%. The lower U.S. gasoline prices are primarily a result of lower crude oil prices, as well as decreasing gasoline consumption in 2026 because of increasing fleetwide fuel economy. Decreasing U.S. refinery capacity over the forecast period may offset some of the downward pressure of lower crude oil prices on gasoline prices.
We forecast benchmark Brent crude oil prices will fall from an average of $81 per barrel (b) in 2024 to $74/b in 2025 and $66/b in 2026, as strong global growth in production of petroleum and other liquids and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices and help offset heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restraint from OPEC+ members. This forecast was completed before the United States issued additional sanctions targeting Russia's oil sector on January 10, which have the potential to reduce Russia's oil exports to the global market.
Benchmark Brent crude oil prices averaged $81 per barrel (b) in 2024, in line with the $82/b for the year that we had forecast in our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and more in-depth analysis. In the January 2024 STEO, we forecast that markets would be relatively balanced in 2024, changing little from the 2023 average Brent price of $82/b. On an annual basis, our forecast for balanced markets was relatively accurate, as global inventories showed only a slight drawdown of 0.18 million barrels per day in 2024.
Average wholesale electricity prices at major trading hubs in the Lower 48 states were lower in 2024 than in 2023. In addition, prices were much less volatile than they have been over the last few years. Lower and more stable electricity prices in 2024 were mostly driven by low natural gas prices, as well as increases in generation for some lower cost renewable energy sources and new battery storage capacity.
In our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook, which includes data and forecasts through December 2026, we forecast five key energy trends that we expect will help shape markets over the next two years.
